Civil aviation in the russian rederation is entering a period of heightened risk

This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.

‘russian civil aviation is entering a period of increased risk amid sanctions, a shortage of spare parts and an ageing fleet,’ analysts say.

‘Despite statements about relatively high demand and flight occupancy, the industry faces systemic constraints that will significantly affect both flight safety and transport volumes in the coming years,’ the report says.

The most pessimistic scenario was voiced by the head of Rosaviatsiya, Dmitry Yadrov, who predicted the withdrawal of 339 aircraft by 2030.

About 109 foreign aircraft that cannot be fully serviced and 230 obsolete Soviet aircraft, which are 40-60 years old, will be taken out of service.

Given that ambitious plans for import substitution have effectively failed — only one of the 15 commercial airliners planned for 2025 has been delivered — the industry faces a real risk of a ‘technical famine,’ the SZRU asserts.

Western sanctions, imposed after the start of the full-scale war against Ukraine, have become the biggest problem for russia, according to the SZRU.

‘Due to restrictions on the supply of new aircraft and spare parts from Boeing and Airbus, russian carriers are forced to maintain the airworthiness of more than 700 aircraft through parallel imports and dismantling some aircraft for spare parts,’ the publication says.

In particular, due to problems with spare parts, more than a third of the long-haul aircraft needed for flights to the Far East and abroad are not in operation.

Of the 93 foreign wide-body passenger airliners remaining in russia, less than 60 are in service. Moscow even appealed to the International Civil Aviation Organisation to ease sanctions, arguing that this was a matter of flight safety, the SZRU recalls.

Against this backdrop, Ural Airlines announced the launch of a programme to extend the service life of Airbus A320 family aircraft beyond 96,000 flight hours at its own technical centre.

Carrying out such work outside of manufacturer-certified centres may distance russian aviation from international safety standards. Given the limited access to original components and manufacturer technical support, this creates additional operational risks.

In the most pessimistic scenario, by 2030, the russian tourism industry will experience a significant drop in domestic and outbound traffic, and regions will face the risk of transport isolation, according to Ukrainian intelligence.

‘Long-term consequences may include a decline in flight safety in the event of continued operation of obsolete aircraft without full access to international technical support infrastructure,’ the publication says.

Source: Economic Pravda, SZRU