The russian defence-industrial complex remains dependent on mineral imports

This is stated in a report by the Economic Security Council of Ukraine (ESCU).

After 2022, the Kremlin announced plans to ramp up production of scarce raw materials; however, according to the ESCU’s assessment, most of these projects will not yield industrial results before 2035, creating a window of opportunity for external economic pressure.

China remains the largest supplier of strategic minerals to the russian federation. Between April 2024 and March 2025, Beijing supplied 1.6 million tonnes of alumina worth $1 billion (31.5 per cent of total imports to the russian federation by value), 240 tonnes of tungsten worth $9.8 million (97 per cent), 3.8 tonnes of tantalum worth $4 million (30 per cent) and 1,732 tonnes of niobium products worth $64 million (58 per cent).

Ferroniobium was also supplied to the russian federation from Brazil – 1,033 tonnes worth over $33 million, accounting for just 30 per cent of total imports. A further 388 tonnes worth $12.8 million (11.7 per cent of imports) were supplied from Canada. russia uses ferroniobium in high-strength and heat-resistant steels required for the production of rocket casings, engines and armoured vehicles.

A further 82 tonnes of Dutch ferroniobium, worth $2.55 million, were shipped to the russian federation via Turkey, whilst 40 tonnes of Brazilian and Canadian raw materials, worth $1.22 million, were shipped from Germany.

Alumina was also supplied from Ireland — 960.35 thousand tonnes worth $567.68 million (17 per cent of imports) — which is used in the production of aluminium and, consequently, for military aviation, cruise and ballistic missiles, in particular the Kh-101, ‘Kalibr’ and ‘Iskander’.

Supplies from Kazakhstan were also critical for the Kremlin, accounting for 69 per cent of tantalum imports, worth $9.28 million, and 76 per cent of beryllium products, worth $11.03 million. ESCU analysts have identified that these raw materials were supplied to the manufacturers of the ‘Iskander-M’, ‘Kinzhal’, ‘Pantsir-S’ and Kh-59.

Uzbekistan supplied 3.95 tonnes of rhenium raw materials ($2.3 million) to the russian federation, which are required for the production of aircraft and rocket engines. A further 290 tonnes were supplied by Belarus. Supplies from Armenia were also significant — 2,058 tonnes of molybdenum products worth $65.25 million, accounting for 42 per cent of imports. Almost the entire volume consisted of ferromolybdenum, which is used in steels for the aviation, missile and defence industries.

“A halt to supplies of strategic minerals will inevitably lead to a weapons shortage in russia and will serve as a compelling argument in favour of a ceasefire. However, this requires decisive economic restrictions targeting the entire supply chain — from raw materials to traders, exporters and logistics hubs,” said Olena Yurchenko, Director of Analytics, Research and Investigations at ESCU.

Source: Ekonomichna Pravda