russia’s civil aviation sector continues to decline due to international sanctions

This has been reported by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine.

 

95 per cent of all passenger transport in russia is carried out by Western-built aircraft — predominantly Airbus and Boeing. Medium- and long-haul flights are 100 per cent operated by Western aircraft.

 

A significant proportion of this fleet has already exceeded the service life guaranteed by the manufacturer and, according to international standards, is unfit for operation. The russians are unable to extend the service life of Western-manufactured aircraft through qualified maintenance due to international sanctions imposed in response to the full-scale war against Ukraine.

 

russian airlines are currently carrying out repairs and maintenance without the necessary certificates. They manufacture some of the required parts themselves, without adhering to the manufacturers’ specified production processes and using unsuitable materials.

 

The russians are attempting to import components that they cannot manufacture themselves via third countries. This applies to both high-tech engine components and cabin fittings.

 

In fact, these aircraft remain airborne solely thanks to the high reliability of their design and components, which were developed by Western manufacturers and certified by authorised service centres.

 

Furthermore, russian airlines face significant restrictions on operating international flights. Without the risk of their aircraft being impounded abroad, they can operate around 400 foreign-built aircraft and fewer than 150 russian or Soviet-built aircraft. To avoid impoundment due to sanctions, the russians intend to use front leasing companies.

 

Increasingly, the method of ‘aircraft cannibalism’ is being used in russia to repair aircraft — some aircraft are stripped for spare parts to keep others airworthy. There have been reports of even new, fully equipped aircraft being dismantled for this purpose, in order to ensure the operation of a dozen other aircraft.

 

To replace Western aircraft, russia has developed an ambitious programme running until 2030, which envisages the production of 994 civil aircraft and 765 helicopters. Around $12 billion has been allocated to implement the programme. However, the effectiveness of these funds is being seriously questioned even within russia.

 

Cut off from Western technologies, the russian aircraft manufacturing industry has proved incapable of developing and manufacturing components that meet international standards and the stated technical specifications. All this leads to constant delays in the certification and launch of mass production of russian aircraft. Moreover, technical non-conformities could completely rule out the possibility of such aircraft being operated on international routes.

 

For instance, the MC-21 aircraft, which was intended to replace the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737, will carry fewer passengers due to technical problems and difficulties with the PD-14 engines. Its capacity has been reduced from 210 to 163 seats. This move requires additional expenditure on redesigning the aircraft and recertification.

 

Similar problems have also arisen with the PD-8 engines for the ‘Superjet’ developed by the Sukhoi Design Bureau, which was intended to replace the Embraer E-Jet family of aircraft.

 

It has been decided not to order any new Il-96 models at all, even though the state programme had provided for the purchase of 14 such aircraft.

 

russia’s aircraft manufacturing industry is also unable to provide replacements for the An-2 and An-24/26, as full-scale maintenance and modernisation of these aircraft are impossible without the involvement of the Ukrainian company Antonov JSC.

 

The LMS-901 ‘Baikal’, which was intended to replace the An-2, is unable to perform its functions, in particular taking off and landing on unprepared unpaved russian runways, and this is precisely one of the advantages of the Ukrainian An-2, which is now over half a century old.

 

The situation is no better with the Il-114-300, which was intended to replace the An-24/26. It has transpired that the Il-114-300 can only operate from airfields with paved runways. The reason is that the propellers are positioned too low and are made from materials that do not meet the necessary requirements. Consequently, there is a high risk of them failing.

 

Production capacity remains a serious problem for the russians. Their nominal capacity is only 26 aircraft per year, which is insufficient to meet the targets set by the programme for 2030. Increasing production requires significant additional capital investment.

 

At present, all modern russian aircraft face a common problem — a lack of access to Western software. Existing Western-built aircraft have been left without updates and access to digital air navigation systems. The systematic jamming of GPS signals by russian forces poses an additional danger, yet flights continue nonetheless.

 

Airport infrastructure also remains problematic. 158 airports — almost two-thirds of the total — are being operated in breach of safety requirements. A further 134 airports require reconstruction or major repairs.

 

Consequently, the civil aviation sector in russia continues to deteriorate rapidly due to international sanctions, a lack of technology and expertise, and the critical ageing of the aircraft fleet, forcing russian airlines to increasingly relax their aircraft operating standards.

 

Flying with russian airlines today poses a significant risk, as, however reliable Western aircraft may be, the russians are unable to ensure the proper conditions for their maintenance and operation.

 

Source: Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine